Temporary migration and conditional settlement in post-Brexit Britain

This project will explore how the UK’s post-Brexit migration policies shape inequality, belonging, and public perceptions.

Why this project is important

Since Brexit, the UK has reconfigured its migration system, restricting access to long-term settlement and turning to temporary visas for migrant workers and people seeking international protection.  This reliance on migrants from Commonwealth and former colonial territories has reshaped the institutional architecture of racial diversity in the UK. At the end of 2024, 4.2 million individuals held temporary immigration status, with 2.3 million from Commonwealth nations.

This shift impacts racial diversity, labour markets, and social rights, yet systematic evidence on its effects remains limited. The project aims to understand how prolonged temporariness affects migrants’ life chances, community cohesion, and public attitudes. It will examine whether framing migration as temporary reinforces perceptions of control or normalizes precarity.

What it will involve

The following question will be answered:

• How do lengthier, more precarious, or uncertain routes to settlement shape migrants’ and refugees’ life chances, financial position, family strategies, migratory projects, and intra- and inter-community relations? How do these effects vary across visa routes, gender, class, nationality, and racialised position?
• How have patterns of entry, temporary stay, and transition (or non-transition) to settlement evolved across selected work and humanitarian routes since Brexit? What similarities and differences emerge across routes and groups, including migrants and refugees from Commonwealth and former colonial territories?
• How are earned settlement, conditional permanence, and short-term visas framed in political and policy discourse, and what assumptions about control, fiscal contribution, and deservingness underpin these narratives?
• How does the public understand temporary migration schemes and conditional settlement pathways? Do such schemes influence perceptions of control, fairness, and legitimacy in immigration policy?

The research will involve:

• Qualitative interviews exploring migrants’ lived experiences of temporariness and conditional settlement. 
• Analysis of political narratives and survey data on public perceptions of temporariness and settlement policies. 
• Analysis of migration patterns, settlement outcomes, and economic impacts of temporary status. 
• Socio-legal analysis of settlement policies and visa conditions, focusing on equality and rights. 

How it will make a difference

Findings will inform policy and legislative debates, support practice change, and contribute to public discourse. Outputs will include podcasts, workshops, and reports.