Projecting future ethnic diversity and social attitudes in Britain

This project will investigate how the UK’s racial diversity is likely to change over coming decades, and whether that may influence how values, beliefs and identities evolve. 

Why this project is important

The UK’s racial diversity has increased significantly in recent decades, largely due to migration from former British colonies and the growth of UK‑born minority populations. At the same time, public anxiety about demographic change is growing. Public attitude surveys show mounting concern about immigration, and sharp divides in attitudes toward multiculturalism and community cohesion. But despite these concerns, there is little evidence of how the UK’s racial diversity will develop and whether this is likely to alter values or identity.

What it will involve

The project aims to answer the following research questions:

• How is the ethnic diversity of Britain likely to change in the decades to come? And how sensitive are conclusions to assumptions about migration and fertility and the formation of inter-ethnic relationships?
• What is changing ethnic diversity likely to mean for the values, beliefs, and attitudes of the UK population? How sensitive are conclusions to different assumptions about whether currently observed differences in values, beliefs, and attitudes are the result of true age differences or differences between generations?

The research will:

• Use a cohort-component model – accounting for age, gender, ethnicity, and migration patterns – to develop a demographic model projecting Britain’s future ethnic composition.
• Link survey data on values, attitudes, and beliefs, such as national identity and tolerance to the demographic projections.
• Assess the sensitivity of projections to assumptions about fertility, mortality, inter-ethnic partnerships, and migration. 
• Examine how attitudes and beliefs vary by ethnicity, age, and gender, and project their evolution. 

How it will make a difference

Findings will strengthen the evidence base, inform integration policies, and foster informed public discourse on the future of a multi-racial UK. Outputs will include blogs, discussion papers, and journal articles.