From rivers of blood to rising seas: Attitudes to climate migration

This project will investigate how race, colonial legacies, and migration histories shape British public attitudes toward climate-linked migration.

Why this project is important

Climate change is predicted to displace up to 1 billion people globally within 30 years, yet public awareness of climate-linked migration in the UK remains limited. The issue is often framed through crisis or threat. These narratives risk deepening racial divisions, echoing historical discourses about post-war Commonwealth migration

Existing research focuses on global displacement, with little evidence on UK-specific migration pathways or how racial diversity and colonial legacies influence public perceptions. Britain’s historical ties to climate-vulnerable Commonwealth nations necessitate understanding public attitudes, particularly among ethnic minority communities with direct connections to these regions.

What it will involve

The research will answer the following questions:

1. What is the expert consensus on climate change-related migration as a risk to the UK and what is the empirical basis for this consensus?
2. How do historical and contemporary media narratives about migration influence how people imagine climate-linked migrants today?
3. How do ethnic minorities and the general population in Britain understand climate-linked migration, and to what extent do they recognise climate change as a cause of people moving?
4. How do British public attitudes towards climate-linked migration relate to ethnicity, racial attitudes, and perceptions of migrants’ deservingness?
5. To what extent do ideas about Britain’s colonial history and its contribution to climate change affect views on responsibility, including support for welcoming climate-linked migrants or climate adaptation overseas?

The research will be completed in four stages: 

1. Conducting a systematic evidence review and Delphi study to synthesize expert consensus on climate-linked migration to the UK. 
2. Employing critical historical discourse analysis to compare post-war migration narratives with contemporary climate migration discourse. 
3. Facilitating 16 focus groups across diverse UK cities to examine public attitudes, using creative methods to capture nuanced perspectives. 
4. Fielding a nationally representative survey to measure public attitudes and test the impact of colonial responsibility narratives on policy preferences. 

How it will make a difference

Findings will be shared with policymakers, civil society organisations, and ethnic minatory communities. Partnering with Climate Outreach will help ensure findings inform public discourse, policy, and community action.