Unpacking the disability employment gap

This project will investigate what contributes to the longstanding disability employment gap in the UK.

The employment rate among people with a disability, particularly a mental health disability, is much lower than among people with no disability. Many disabled people say they want to work, suggesting that this gap is too large. Work is key to poverty reduction, and persistent worklessness among some groups in society is an underlying cause of inequality and reduced opportunities. Good work can also have benefits for health and well-being. Current government policy aims to get 1 million more disabled people into work by 2027, but this will require better understanding of the underlying causes of the disability employment gap. This study will use different definitions of disability and distinguish between different physical and mental health conditions to produce a detailed breakdown of the factors behind the gap in employment rates between disabled and non-disabled people. It will use variations across local areas and time to explore the role of factors such as labour supply and demand, employer policies, the benefit system, health policies and the COVID-19 crisis.

The first stage of research will draw on academic and policy literature to develop a typology of factors that might potentially explain the disability employment gap. The researchers will identify data for each of these factors to incorporate into modelling. The main source of data will be the Annual Population Survey (APS), derived from the Labour Force Survey, which captures detail on physical and mental health conditions and whether an individual’s health affects the amount or type of work they can do. Data on factors such as the availability of local jobs and local unemployment rates can be linked to the APS. To look at the effects of employer policies, the researchers will aggregate data from the Workplace Employment Relations Survey on the prevalence of HR practices relating to disabled people. They will also include time- or location-variant government policies, such as the Access to Work scheme. The initial analysis will describe how the overall disability employment gap varies between local areas and over time for the whole population and for key subgroups. Multivariate regression will be used to estimate the relative strengths of the different explanatory factors for predicting labour market outcomes. The researchers will run models for different local areas to examine which demand- and supply-side factors seem to explain the large geographical variations in the disability employment gap. They will use repeated cross-sections to explore the reasons for changes over time. Where sample sizes allow, analyses will be repeated for specific types of disability, by age and by gender.

The findings will inform policy responses to the disability employment gap, and the researchers will engage with policymakers throughout the life of the project, as well as with disability charities. The final project report will be publicly available on the Nuffield Foundation website.

Dr Andrew Bryce explains the Disability Employment Gap

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Animated video: the Disability Employment Gap

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