Tax, benefits and public spending in the 2026 devolved elections

This project will provide vital information on the financial and policy context, and different parties’ plans in the 2026 Scottish and Welsh elections. 

Why this project is important

The devolved parliaments and governments of Scotland and Wales are responsible for major areas of public policy, spending, and taxation, and have forged increasingly different paths from policy in England. This has gone furthest in Scotland – Free tuition and personal care, and a more progressive personal tax and benefit system; but is also true of Wales – with council tax revaluation legislated for, and different approaches to delivering key services such as education, social care, and health.  

Devolved governments also operate within complex and restrictive fiscal frameworks. These provide them with substantially more funding per person than in England. However, over time this funding advantage is set to narrow, making such policies harder to maintain. In this context, clear and impartial explanation and analysis of the funding and policy context, and the trade-offs entailed with different policy proposals, is particularly vital.  

What it will involve

The research team will:   

• Analyse and report on funding, spending, and fiscal frameworks of the devolved governments of Scotland and Wales.   

• Evaluate public service spending, performance, and trade-offs using data and comparative analysis across the UK.   

• Assess tax and benefit policies, their financial and distributional impacts, and offer recommendations for improved policy design.   

• Conduct rapid and responsive analysis of party manifestos, focusing on fiscal feasibility and policy coherence.   

How it will make a difference

Stakeholders include political parties, researchers, commentators, civil society organizations, the media, and general public. Outputs and activities will include: 

• Dedicated web pages for Scottish and Welsh election analysis, featuring reports, videos, podcasts, and presentations.   

• Accessible short reports on devolved government funding, public service performance, and tax and benefit policies.   

• Rapid responses to major party manifestos. 

• Podcasts to inform public debate.   

• In-person and online events for comparative analysis of party proposals with Q&A sessions and panel discussions.   

This project was funded alongside research by the Fraser of Allander Institute and Wales Governance Centre into the 2026 devolved elections.