2026 Scottish Parliament and Senedd election analysis

This project, conducted jointly by the Fraser of Allander Institute and the Wales Governance Centre, will provide analysis on the economic and fiscal issues facing Scotland and Wales before, during, and just after the 2026 Scottish Parliament and Senedd elections.

Why this project is important

Despite over 25 years of devolution, public understanding of fiscal and policy issues in Scotland and Wales remains limited. Both devolved governments have significant authority over public service delivery and tax powers, yet there is a lack of comprehensive analysis on funding and expenditure in these regions compared to the UK level.

What it will involve

The research team will address this gap by providing authoritative, independent analysis to inform public discourse. Additionally, the project will enable a deeper understanding of expenditure drivers and their implications for public policy, particularly in areas like health, social care, and justice.

The project will involve:

• Producing pre-election reports on fiscal priorities for Scotland and Wales, focusing on tax, funding, and expenditure.
• Developing methodologies for analysing government spending data, incorporating economic and functional categories.
• Conducting in-depth studies on key expenditure topics, such as health, social care, and transport subsidies.
• Analysing campaign issues, manifesto proposals, and post-election outcomes, including coalition negotiations

Findings will be shared with key stakeholders, including policymakers, academics, and the public, through:

• Two comprehensive reports for Scotland and Wales.
• Short-form content, including blogs and podcasts, published during the campaign to address emerging issues.
• Dissemination events in Scotland, Wales, and London, with bilingual sessions for Welsh audiences.
• Retrospective analyses of election outcomes and their implications for fiscal and policy decisions.

This project was funded alongside research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies on the 2026 devolved elections.