Trajectories of deprivation in the UK

This project will develop a toolkit to document and understand changes in deprivation across the UK, helping to assess the effectiveness of previous interventions to reduce social and spatial inequalities and to guide those of the future.

Deprivation measurements play a crucial role in the development and implementation of policies to help disadvantaged communities. Multiple deprivation indices are used as official measures of deprivation across the four nations of the UK, and billions of pounds have been allocated based upon data for a single time point. However, the likely success of such interventions is determined by the deprivation history and trajectory of an area (e.g., deindustrialisation, population decline). Whether a scheme has achieved its aims should also be assessed by measuring changes in deprivation over time, yet this is rarely attempted.

The research team will develop a novel resource which characterises deprivation that is consistent over time, includes income and employment measures that are consistent across the 408 local authority districts of the UK and that accounts for demographic, social and economic changes. Census data, information contained within the multiple deprivation measures and monthly benefit claimants’ data will allow the research team to create classifications of deprivation (e.g. persistent deprivation, recent increasing deprivation). Working with policy and practice experts within local authorities will provide the context behind the main trends in their areas over the last 10 years. Lessons learned from areas where deprivation has decreased will be crucial in shaping future practice.

Completion of the research will help answer five key research questions:

1. What are the characteristics of deprivation in each area?
2. What is the largest driver of deprivation and change in deprivation in each area?
3. What has caused deprivation to increase, decrease or stagnate?
4. What interventions have successfully changed deprivation?
5. How can the lessons learned from successful case studies be applied elsewhere?

The toolkit will contain deprivation measures for multiple time periods across geographical areas, a classification of deprivation trajectories, a statistical model to explain changes and a profile for every local authority in the UK containing summary statistics and maps of deprivation. A web-based platform will be used to create a deprivation dashboard, allowing the public to extract information on geographical areas, population subsets and specific points in time. Bespoke policy recommendations will be provided for each of the classification types in case study local authorities. Policy briefings, journal articles and a dissemination event will be produced to share the information with key stakeholders.