Post-16 pathways: the role of peers, family background and expectations

This project investigated the extent to which expected economic and social returns account for the effects of socio-economic background on post-16 education options.

Why the research is important

Parental socio-economic status has a substantial impact on educational transitions in the UK, even when taking prior educational achievement into account. Previous research shows substantial socio-economic differences in GCSE subject choice and the decision to continue to A-Level. These decisions about post-16 options have significant implications for future social mobility and labour market prospects.

What the research investigated

The research team explored the role of economic resources, expected occupational returns, the influence of peers, school engagement and perceived personal control. The analysis was based on educational records from the National Pupil Database and Individualised Learner Record linked to the 1989/90 birth cohort from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England.

What the research found

The extent to which individuals pursue more ambitious educational choices such as A-levels reflects the individual perception that efforts will be rewarded. Students from lower socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to believe they have fewer chances of getting into university even after taking into consideration prior academic attainment.

The secondary school attended has a substantial role in shaping the choice for EBacc GCSE subjects and A-levels. Attending a school with a sixth form, a higher level of attainment at GCSE exams and a higher proportion of students choosing EBacc subjects and A-levels is associated with a higher likelihood of choosing EBacc GCSE subjects and A-levels post-16.

Pathway choices are affected by peers. A 1% increase in school peers choosing EBacc GCSE subjects is associated with a 1% percent increase in the likelihood of choosing those subjects and a 1% increase in school peers choosing A-levels is associated with a 3% percent increase in the likelihood of choosing A-levels. This estimate of the peers’ effect is based on a statistical strategy based on the instrumental variable ‘peers of peers’ who did not attend the same primary school as the cohort members’ one.

The implications

• Students from lower socio-economic backgrounds need greater access to accurate information and programmes that encourage positive expectations. More evidence is needed on the effectiveness of such interventions.
• Improving the provision and quality of post-16 vocational and technical qualifications would reduce the quality and esteem gap between vocational and academic post-16 qualifications.
• Policies should reduce the effect of school segregation by 1) increasing the enrolment of students in high performing schools, 2) monitoring school composition to reduce segregation by background and 3) reduce/defer the branching points in the education system such as through a broader post-16 curriculum.