Addressing Undermatch in HE destinations

This project will develop and pilot an intervention for school/college staff to improve students’ higher education outcomes.

Why this project is important

Social mobility in the UK has stagnated, with higher education often failing to deliver its benefits to those most in need. ‘Undermatch’, where students attend less selective universities than their academic credentials warrant, disproportionately affects women and those from low socio-economic backgrounds. This phenomenon, impacting 15-25% of students, is linked to lower degree completion rates, attainment, and earnings, thereby impacting social mobility, workforce diversity, and the gender pay gap.

Current research highlights the school/college attended as a strong predictor of undermatch, presenting a critical intervention point. This research aims to create a sustainable intervention for addressing undermatch, complementing existing initiatives and ensuring higher education delivers its intended benefits.

There are three overarching research questions:

1. What are the barriers to achieving matched HE destinations for students at risk of undermatching, particularly women and students from lower socio-economic groups?
2. What school/college-level factors contribute to or increase the risk of undermatching?
3. To what extent can a targeted training and resource programme aimed at schools/colleges improve the match between student ability and the quality of the higher education courses they apply to?

What it will involve

The research will involve intervention refinement, analysis of impact on HE match, and evaluation of programme delivery. This includes:

• Set up: Developing a programme theory of change and indicator bank.
• School engagement: Recruiting up to 40 schools across different areas of England and carrying out mismatch analysis for previous cohorts.
• Staff consultation: Conducting surveys and interviews to measure changes in student support.
• Student consultation: Convening focus groups to explore barriers and influences on higher education decisions.
• Evaluation: Conducting quantitative and qualitative analysis to assess programme impact.

How it will make a difference

Key stakeholders for the project include teachers and careers staff, leadership teams in schools/trusts, outreach organisations, and policymakers. Outputs and activities to disseminate the findings will include toolkits, impact reports, policy briefs, and information and training events.