IFS recommends exam scores should be age adjusted to ensure fair comparisons

By Nuffield Foundation

New research published today by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and funded by the Nuffield Foundation, provides fresh evidence on the extent to which the difference in educational outcomes between children born at different times of the year continues to affect them throughout their lives.

It also provides new insight into what explains these differences, which is crucial in order to understand the most appropriate policy response.

The report uses new data to confirm that, relative to children born in September, those born in August, on average:

  • Are 6.4 percentage points less likely to achieve 5 GCSEs or equivalents at grades A*-C (53.7% vs. 60.1%).
  • Are 2 percentage points less likely to go to university at age 18 or 19, and 1 percentage point less likely to attend a Russell Group institution.
  • Have lower confidence in their academic ability and are less likely to believe that they control their own destiny (locus of control) as teenagers.

It provides new evidence that, in addition, they are:

  • 5.4 percentage points more likely to be labelled as having mild special educational needs at age 11 (12.5% vs. 7.1%).
  • More likely to engage in risky behaviours such as underage smoking at younger ages.
  • 1 percentage point less likely to obtain a degree.

However, despite the large and significant differences that we observe between children born at the start and end of the academic year in terms of educational attainment and other skills and behaviours during childhood, we find little evidence that these detrimental effects persist into adulthood.

In particular, relative to individuals born in September, those born in August, on average:

  • Are no more or less likely to be in work (although they are slightly more likely to be unemployed).
  • Do not earn more or less per hour or week.
  • Are (subjectively) no healthier or happier during adulthood.

Commenting on these findings, Claire Crawford, Programme Director at IFS and one of the authors of the report, said:

“Our research continues to show very large differences in attainment between children born at the start and end of the academic year, which affects the post-compulsory education options open to them. While we find little evidence that these differences persist into adulthood, this does not mean that policymakers should be let off the hook. Our research shows that children who are relatively young in their year have lower self-confidence, lower belief in their academic ability and are more likely to start smoking younger than their relatively older peers. This suggests that it is still vital for policymakers to act to overcome these differences.”

Crucially, the report also provides new insight into what drives the differences in attainment and other skills that we see. We find that:

  • Age at test matters most. This means that children born in August end up with worse exam results, on average, than children born in September simply because they are 11 months younger when they sit national achievement tests
  • By contrast, we find that the age at which children start school and the amount of schooling they receive prior to the test explain very little of the differences in test scores that we observe.

On the basis of our results, we recommend that the following policy actions are taken to help address the consequences of month of birth differences in educational attainment and wider outcomes:

  • National achievement test scores should be age adjusted to account for the fact that children born at different times of the year have to sit the tests when they are different ages.
  • These age-adjusted scores should be used to calculate school league table positions, to determine entry to schools that select on the basis of ability and potentially also to assign pupils to ability groups within schools.
  • They should also be used to assess whether a pupil can continue into further and higher education. But when pupils leave school, they should take with them their non age-adjusted grades, to ensure that employers can be confident that pupils have achieved a particular absolute standard.

Commenting on these findings, Ellen Greaves, Research Economist at IFS and another author of the report, said:

“Our findings point to a simple solution to the pitfalls of testing children born at the start and end of the academic year at very different ages: age-adjusting the cut-offs required for pupils to achieve particular grades would ensure that no child is prevented from going on to further or higher education simply because of the month in which they were born. The policy solutions to some of the other differences we observe are less clear, however, making it vital that teachers and parents are aware of the potential disadvantages that children born at the end of the year may face across a whole range of areas.”

Notes to editors

1. For media enquiries contact: Emma Hyman at the IFS (020 7291 4800 / 07730 667 013)

2. The Nuffield Foundation has funded this project, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.

Explore our projects

New

Education | 2025 - 2026

Investigating performance across Key Stage 2 maths topics

View project
Teacher with secondary pupils
New

Education | 2024 - 2028

Teaching improvement through data and evaluation (TIDE)

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Long-term outcomes of high-achieving disadvantaged children

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Exploring academic selection and grammar schools in Northern Ireland

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Pupil school mobility: types, pathways and implications for education

View project
Young girl using an iPad at home
New

Education | 2024 - 2024

Early years digital media literacy review

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Can digital parenting interventions benefit early language development?

View project
Little girls in primary school uniform

Education | 2024 - 2026

Developing a classroom intervention to improve conversation skills

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Vocabulary for Reading: the power of words

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Spending across different stages of education

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

A feasibility and pilot trial of the Early Years Library

View project
Secondary school music teacher smiles at students working together at a keyboard.
New

Education | 2024 - 2025

Teacher recruitment & retention challenges in England

View project
Young girl using an iPad at home
New

Education | 2024 - 2024

Early years digital media literacy review

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Pupil school mobility: types, pathways and implications for education

View project
Teacher with secondary pupils
New

Education | 2024 - 2028

Teaching improvement through data and evaluation (TIDE)

View project
Secondary school music teacher smiles at students working together at a keyboard.
New

Education | 2024 - 2025

Teacher recruitment & retention challenges in England

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

A feasibility and pilot trial of the Early Years Library

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Can digital parenting interventions benefit early language development?

View project
New

Education | 2025 - 2026

Investigating performance across Key Stage 2 maths topics

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Vocabulary for Reading: the power of words

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Spending across different stages of education

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Exploring academic selection and grammar schools in Northern Ireland

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Long-term outcomes of high-achieving disadvantaged children

View project
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2024

Artificial intelligence and education

View project
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2024

Artificial intelligence and education

View project
Two little boys and a little girl, all wearing primary school uniform, work together to solve a puzzle in their classroom.
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2025

What has ‘Free School Meals’ measured and what are the implications?

View project
Father and daughter having fun at home
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2024

Optimisation and feasibility of Triple P parenting programme for remote delivery

View project
Early years professionals playing with children
In progress

Education | 2022 - 2024

Understanding the take-up of early education entitlements

View project
Primary school children using a microscope during a lesson outside at school
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2025

Purposeful and effective practical work in primary school science

View project
Male and female apprentices looking at car engine
In progress

Education | 2022 - 2025

Work or study? Gender and the transition from school to work

View project
Two teenage male pupils study a science lesson as part of their post-16 options
In progress

Education | 2019 - 2024

Post-16 pathways: the role of peers, family background and expectations

View project
Teacher helping primary school girl with schoolwork in the classroom
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2024

The impact of additional learning needs identification in Wales

View project
Teenage sixth form students taking notes in a lesson
In progress

Education | 2022 - 2024

Comparing inequality and outcomes across post-16 education in the UK

View project
Teenage sixth form students walking into college
In progress

Education | 2022 - 2025

The long-term impact of the Education Maintenance Allowance

View project
Little girl watches TV on her own at home
In progress

Education | 2023 - 2025

Do same language subtitles help children learn to read?

View project
14 year old girl doing homework
In progress

Education | 2022 - 2024

Experiences of 14 to 16 year olds in Further Education in England

View project
Young girl using an iPad at home
New

Education | 2024 - 2024

Early years digital media literacy review

View project
Secondary school music teacher smiles at students working together at a keyboard.
New

Education | 2024 - 2025

Teacher recruitment & retention challenges in England

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

A feasibility and pilot trial of the Early Years Library

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Can digital parenting interventions benefit early language development?

View project
New

Education | 2025 - 2026

Investigating performance across Key Stage 2 maths topics

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Vocabulary for Reading: the power of words

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Spending across different stages of education

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Exploring academic selection and grammar schools in Northern Ireland

View project
New

Education | 2024 - 2026

Long-term outcomes of high-achieving disadvantaged children

View project
Teenager hugging their mother
New

Welfare | 2023 - 2025

Juvenile onset rheumatic diseases: education, vocational readiness, & employment

View project
School children with their bicycles in the school yard. Happy as a girl and boy walk pushing them side by side.
New

Education | Welfare | 2022 - 2024

Modifying school choice for more equitable outcomes in England

View project
New

Education | 2022 - 2023

The medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pupils with SEND

View project
Reception class children using a parachute in a PE lesson
Reported

Education | 2022 - 2023

A movement and story-telling intervention for reception children

View project
Side view of two female high school students in classroom working on laptops social distancing. Student in foreground is in focus and student in background is blurred
Reported

Education | 2021 - 2022

COVID-19 and disadvantage gaps in England 2020 and 2021

View project
Young boy draws and plays with a globe as part of nursery education
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2022

COVID-19 and childcare: local impacts across England

View project
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2022

Ethical principles underpinning co-production with young people

View project
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2021

COVID-19 mitigation measures: education provision and access to special schools

View project
Young-boy-uses-tablet-with-mother-for-maths-learning-Can-maths-apps-add-value-to-learning-PROJ
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2022

Can maths apps add value to learning?

View project
Male secondary school student working at home on laptop
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2021

The impact of COVID-19 on mainstream schools in England

View project
Teenage-girl-looks-at-smartphone-next-to-laptop-Growing-up-under-COVID-19-PROJ
Reported

Education | Welfare | 2020 - 2022

Growing up under COVID-19

View project
Top view of librarian sitting with five multiethnic children on floor. Teacher reading book to cute girls and young boys at school.
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2022

Comparisons of cognitive skills and educational attainment across the UK

View project
Teenage-pupil-wearing-woolly-hat-writes-on-whiteboard-The-influence-of-headteachers-on-their-schools-PROJ
Reported

Education | 2020 - 2024

The influence of headteachers on their schools

View project
Young-child-blurred-in-background-plays-with-abacus-in-foreground-Early-years-employment-pathways-PROJ
Reported

Education | 2019 - 2020

A systematic review of early years degrees and employment pathways

View project
A middle-aged teacher sits at her desk and helps a female student with a problem in her textbook.
Reported

Education | Welfare | 2020 - 2020

Measuring the disadvantage attainment gap in 16-19 education

View project
Search projects

We improve people’s lives by funding research that informs social policy, primarily in Education, Welfare and Justice. We also fund student programmes that give young people skills and confidence in science and research.

We offer our grant-holders the freedom to frame questions and enable new thinking. Our research must stand up to rigorous academic scrutiny, but we understand that to be successful in effecting change, it also needs to be relevant to people’s experience.

Profile