Should countries have a population strategy?
That question is currently at the centre of a national debate in Switzerland, where voters have just rejected a proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million people. Supporters argue that rapid population growth is putting pressure on housing, public services and the environment. Opponents counter that migration is being used as a convenient explanation for wider challenges and warn that restricting population growth could create labour shortages and make it harder to support an ageing society.
Even for those firmly against a population cap, the debate highlights a broader question: how should societies respond to demographic change?
Demography matters because it shapes everyday life
Recently the Nuffield Foundation hosted a meeting of leading experts on population change, where it was clear that changes in the size and composition of the population affect almost every aspect of society. They influence demand for housing, schools, health and social care, and shape the public finances that support these services. Through those routes and many others, population change affects people’s financial security, health and well-being in ways that aren’t obvious day-to-day.
The challenge is that demographic change unfolds gradually, often over decades. Nor does the topic lend itself to simple solutions or objectives. There is broad consensus that outcomes such as better educated citizens, lower crime and improved health are good things. On the other hand, there will be debate on issues such as how many children should be born each year or what level of migration is needed to support the economy and public services.
Under most plausible scenarios, the UK population is expected to become older, fertility rates are likely to remain below the level where births each year match the number of deaths, and the proportion of people outside traditional working age is expected to increase. These trends will interact with each other and wider social, economic and environmental forces.
Fewer children are being born
Fertility rates are falling across many high-income countries, and the reasons are not fully understood. Family formation decisions will be influenced by a range of social and economic factors, including financial security, insecure work and access to secure housing. Research has focused on women’s choices and experiences, while the role of male partners in fertility decisions remains relatively under-explored.
Recent US research appears to show that smartphones changed how teens spend time with each other, driving a collapse in teen fertility. However, complex social phenomena rarely lend themselves to simple explanation and the findings have been subject to critique.
International evidence suggests that whilst some policies may have modest effects, it appears unlikely that any single plausible intervention can reverse long-term trends, highlighting the importance of understanding the broader conditions that enable people to have the family lives they want.
Rethinking work in an ageing society
Official projections show around 15% of people born in 2024 living to at least 100. Other studies have produced much higher estimates. Longer lives are a remarkable achievement, but they also raise important questions about work, retirement and extending working lives.
Some countries such as Japan and Germany have been more successful in keeping more people aged 55-64 in work. Extending the average UK working life by even one year would provide a significant boost to our strained public finances.
This is not a simple matter of raising retirement ages. It involves creating conditions that make continued participation possible and desirable. Better health, lifelong learning, flexible working and support for carers could all help people stay working for longer when it would be to their benefit.
At the same time, policy discussions must recognise that people’s experiences differ significantly. Adults providing care for ageing family members are doing a vital job. Physically demanding occupations may not be sustainable into later life and those in them need help in transitioning into other roles.
Growing pressure on public services
An ageing population will inevitably increase demand for pensions, healthcare and social care.
Future generations of retirees may rely more heavily on state support than previous generations who benefited from secure occupational pensions. Wealth, housing assets and inheritances are also distributed deeply unevenly across the population.
Health and social care face particular challenges. Growing demand for NHS care is expected to require more funding and a larger workforce even taking account of ambitious plans to improve productivity. Delivering these changes will not be straightforward, especially in social care, where provision is often fragmented across many smaller organisations.
Migration is unpredictable
The Swiss referendum has focused attention on migration as it is often seen as being directly under the influence of government.
Migration is nevertheless limited as a tool of population control. Governments cannot really control where people choose to move to or settle. Competition for highly skilled workers is increasingly global. Migrants themselves get older, so they do not provide a long-term solution to the issue of an ageing population.
While population projections often assume continued positive net migration, this cannot be taken for granted and precise levels are hard to forecast. Annual net migration fell from a peak of 923,000 in mid-2023 to 171,000 at the end of 2025, a swing of an extent few would have predicted.
Countries with ageing populations often depend on migrant workers to fill labour shortages and support economic activity. In 2025, 21% of the NHS workforce were non-British nationals, and 32% in London.
A population strategy for the UK?
Scotland does not have a population target, but it is currently the only part of the UK with an explicit population strategy, bringing academic researchers and civil society organisations into discussion with policymakers. Although the policy levers devolved to Scotland are relatively indirect, there has been a concerted effort to connect issues such as migration, housing, economic development and community sustainability within a coherent framework.
The UK has no equivalent mechanism for identifying and implementing joined-up responses to demographic change. Yet many of the challenges associated with demographic change cut across departmental boundaries. Better evidence could help policymakers anticipate emerging challenges and develop responses that reflect the realities of different communities.
Building the evidence for the future
The debate in Switzerland demonstrates how questions about population change can quickly become politically charged. Yet demographic change is ultimately about people, families, communities and the conditions that enable them to thrive.
The challenge is not to predict the future but to understand the forces shaping demographic change, explore alternative futures and identify policies that are sufficiently agile and can help society adapt.
Effective responses will require policymakers to recognise the connections between the drivers of demographic change and how they collectively impact public services, housing, and labour markets.
At the Nuffield Foundation, understanding demographic change and its implications for policy and practice is central to our new strategy. We are keen to see research that improves understanding of how demographic change is reshaping people’s lives, opportunities and experiences. Questions include why fertility rates are falling, whether that is a problem and if so what might be done about it. We are interested in how people might be helped to extend their working lives, how migration policy might respond to the changing population, and the limits to action in those areas. More broadly we see scope to examine how different aspects of demographic change interact, reinforce and offset one another, with resulting implications for policy and government strategy.
If you are a researcher working on these questions, we encourage you to explore opportunities through our main grants programme. High-quality independent research has a vital role to play in informing debate and helping society navigate whatever demographic future lies ahead.
