The effects of permanent school closures on pupils’ outcomes

This project investigates how school closures in England impact pupils’ academic attainment, attendance, and behaviour, considering demographic and socioeconomic factors.

Why is this important?

The Education Policy Institute predicts there will be 436,000 fewer pupils in England’s schools between 2022/23 and 2028/29, with the DfE projecting a further fall of 382,000 pupils between 2028/29 and 2032/33. London and the North East are anticipated to experience the largest reductions in pupil numbers.

Large demographic shifts will impact school funding, leading to school closures, mergers, and pupils’ displacement. Existing research, which is predominantly from the US, suggests that displaced, lower-achieving students transferring to higher-performing schools may experience academic gains, although potentially at the expense of students in the receiving schools. However, the evidence base is thin.

What does it involve?

The research team will strengthen existing evidence by answering the following questions:

1. How do school closures affect displaced pupils’ academic attainment, attendance/ absenteeism, and in-school behaviours?
2. How are pupils in ‘receiving’ schools affected by the arrival of those displaced by closures?
3. How does the effect of closures vary by pupils’ education stage or age at closure?
4. How does the effect of closures differ by prior attainment, socioeconomic, gender, and ethnic background?
5. What are the mechanisms driving the effects of school closures?

Analysis of the National Pupil Database will identify a) displaced pupils i.e. those that were enrolled in a school when it closed and b) receiver pupils i.e. those that were enrolled in a school that displaced pupils joined. A difference-in-differences approach will be used to provide a causal estimate of the effects of closure. Additional analysis will explore the effects of closure and the potential mechanisms of closure, considering factors like the influence of pupil/teacher ratio, characteristics of new peers, and distance to the new school.

How will it make a difference?

By supporting evidence-based decision-making, the project will help policy makers better understand how to mitigate negative impacts and maximise benefits of school closures, enhancing educational equity and resource allocation. Dissemination activities include policy briefs, practitioner guidance, workshops, and webinars.