UK impacts of the US-Iran conflict

Background and scope
Key dates
Priority research areas
What we will fund
Who we have funded

Background and scope

The 2026 conflict involving the US, Iran, Israel and the wider region – and shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz – has caused volatility in energy markets and is contributing to inflationary pressures. These impacts are likely to continue, even as tensions ease through the upcoming ceasefire. In the UK, this is being felt through higher fuel costs and imminent increases to energy bills, adding to the cumulative burden of recent cost-of-living shocks.

As the situation evolves, households, businesses and policymakers are responding, and further significant effects are likely to emerge over time. This fund seeks to enable rapid research and analysis capable of capturing these emerging dynamics, alongside identifying practical measures to minimise the impacts on people’s lives.

It focuses on generating timely, rigorous evidence to understand both the economic and social consequences of the crisis, enable consideration of trade-offs – including over time – and support the design of effective, feasible, and proportionate national and local policy responses, applying lessons from previous shocks where possible. Particular emphasis is placed on distributional effects across households, businesses, and the wider economy, as well as on strengthening system and societal resilience in uncertain times.

We expect to fund up to eight projects, with a total funding budget of up to £300,000.

Key dates

Applications open: 16 June 2026
Application deadline: 11.59am, 10 July 2026
Funding decisions: End of July 2026
Projects start: Ideally August / September 2026

Priority research areas

Your proposal must address one or more of the following priority areas:

- How can support be targeted effectively at households most vulnerable to rising energy and fuel costs, given data and administrative constraints?
- Are there groups who may be particularly impacted who risk being overlooked by existing systems of support and, if so, how might policy respond? Is support varying by place and, if so, how?
- If sharp relative price rises or supply shortages reduce households’ access to essential goods and services, what impacts would that have and how could they be mitigated?
- Does the compound pressures of this shock on top of others over recent years necessitate urgent action for particularly vulnerable households?
- What robust, impartial and insightful data is available, or could feasibly be developed, to track price changes and impacts on households in near real-time and how might this be achieved? What are the key limitations?
- Are there non-monetary approaches to limiting inflation that policymakers should consider taking into account potential price distortions, distributional impacts and fiscal costs?
- As the consequences of, and responses to, the crisis evolve, how are households responding to rising costs, policy signals and different forms of financial support, including the risks of welfare-reducing responses such as underheating homes?
- What measures could help households reduce energy use in response to rising prices, and how effective might they be?
- Which supply chains and sectors of the UK economy are most exposed, such as energy intensive industry and agriculture, and what are the risks of their contraction, relocation or structural change?
- How can and should support be effectively targeted at businesses disproportionately affected by cost shocks? What approach might best navigate the trade-offs between advancing net zero objectives, supporting comparative advantage and mitigating the risks of moral hazard?
- How do firms’ energy price hedging strategies determine their resilience and affect consumers, and how does this vary by sectors and firm size?
- What are the impacts of the crisis and associated cost of living pressures on communities, including on community cohesion, and what policy responses are needed?
- What additional pressures are the crisis and associated cost of living pressures placing on public services, and how should they be addressed?
- What are the lessons for improving resilience to future inflationary and energy shocks, including the extent to which crises entrench problems or might drive structural change?
- What are the short- and long-term costs and benefits of policy intervention, including impacts on public finances (e.g. government debt), and how should these trade-offs shape decisions about whether and how to intervene?

What we will fund

We welcome applications for:

Rapid-response empirical and applied research, including synthesis and qualitative approaches
Real-time data collection and analysis
Policy analysis, evaluation, and scenario modelling
Distributional and behavioural analysis

Your project should demonstrate:

Clear policy relevance and practical, implementable insights
Explicit consideration of fiscal implications, opportunity costs and trade-offs associated with any proposed measures or actions
Feasibility and deliverability within very tight timelines
A rigorous analytical approach using available data or including a clear, feasible plan for data collection
Transparency about uncertainty and data limitations
Strong dissemination and engagement plans

If you are proposing a more reflective approach you can apply to our Main grants Fund round. The next deadline is 5 October 2026.

Expected outputs

Your project should deliver:

Concise policy briefs and recommendations
Clear analysis of direct, indirect, intentional and unintentional impacts, trade-offs, and costs
Where relevant, data tools or monitoring approaches

Outputs must be timely, accessible, and directly usable by policymakers.

Who should apply

We welcome applications from UK-based organisations, including:

Universities and research institutes
Independent research organisations
Think tanks and policy institutes
Research consultancies
Other organisations with relevant expertise and analytical capacity

Collaborative applications are encouraged where they strengthen the quality, relevance or impact of the research.

Read this opportunity’s Guide for applicants

Application process
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FAQs

Application process

Applications will be completed using a single application stage and considered on an accelerated timetable. We may request additional information or clarification on submission.

Deadline for applications: 11.59am, 10 July

Your application will be assessed by the Foundation’s in-house team, with final funding decisions made by the end of July 2026.

You should be ready to begin as soon as possible after funding decisions are announced – ideally August or September 2026.

Read this opportunity’s Guide for applicants

Start your application

Frequently asked questions

If you have further queries, email us at  applications@nuffieldfoundation.org

We expect to fund up to eight projects, with a total funding budget of up to £300,000.
Applications are welcome from UK-based organisations with relevant research expertise and capacity to deliver high-quality work within the required timeframe.
We welcome rapid, policy-relevant research and analysis that addresses one or more of the priority areas outlined above.
We expect to notify applicants by the end of July 2026.
Projects should be completed by February 2027 at the very latest.
Please read the funding opportunity’s Guide for applicants before submitting an application.
You might consider applying to our next Main grants application round. The deadline is 5 October 2026.

UK impacts of the US-Iran conflict

Contents

Background and scope

Key dates

Priority research areas

What we will fund

Expected outputs

Who should apply

Contents

Application process

Frequently asked questions

UK impacts of the US-Iran conflict

Contents

Background and scope

Key dates

Priority research areas

What we will fund

Expected outputs

Who should apply

Who we have funded

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