Post-16 pathways to the labour market for lower attaining learners at Key Stage 4

This project will explore the post-16 educational pathways taken by learners who achieve grade 3 (D) or below in Maths and/or English at Key Stage 4 (KS4).

Despite many initiatives aiming to support learners gaining the qualifications they need to progress to Level 3 study, in 2018 55% of disadvantaged young people achieved only a grade 3 (D) or below in Maths and/or English GCSE at KS4. This sets them on a very different path from more advantaged peers. Young people with lower attainment face a greater variety of post-16 options, and evidence suggests they have difficulty accessing support to make informed educational decisions. This study will describe the pathways taken by young people and their subsequent labour market outcomes up to the age of 30. Current Technical Education policy focuses on the quality of learning opportunities at Level 3 and above. Less attention is paid to improving access and to the potential of Further Education provision to offer ‘second chance’ learning opportunities at Levels 1 and 2. This research will provide the evidence and impact needed to re-focus debate on the post-16 support needed for those most at risk of poor education and labour market outcomes.

The research team will use Longitudinal Educational Outcomes (LEO) data. The first stage of the project will map the different pathways and outcomes of lower attainers at KS4 using a range of descriptive statistics and visualisation tools. This will include descriptions of how these patterns have changed over time and how they vary according to demographics such as socio-economic disadvantage. The second stage of research will evaluate the causal impacts of three recent reforms for lower attainers:

• the removal of NVQs in 2015;
• the requirement since 2014 that students aged 16-18 who do not achieve grades 9-4 (A*-C) in Maths or English continue to study these subjects; and
• implementation of the 2011 Wolf Review of Vocational Education.

The researchers will compare outcomes between student cohorts affected by these reforms and predecessor cohorts who were unaffected, but otherwise similar. The results will be compared by socio-economic background and over time.

The final stage will estimate the causal impacts of attending different types of post-16 institution and taking different types of qualification, on educational and labour market outcomes. The researchers will create choice sets of institutions available to 16-year-olds given where they live and their level of academic attainment, and then compare outcomes for otherwise-similar individuals with different choices available to them. The researchers will also develop indicators of distance to post-16 institutions, using this as an instrumental variable to estimate the impact of post-16 pathway choice on students’ educational and labour market outcomes. This research will provide policy recommendations to help ensure education acts to overcome social disadvantage, rather than accentuate social segregation.