COVID-19 and the impact of school closure

This project is looking to evaluate the impact of school closures in response to COVID-19.

In March 2020 the UK government closed schools in England to slow the spread of the virus. Then in early May 2020, the government announced a phased re-opening. However, implementation of the re-opening was largely left in the hands of schools and Local Authorities. After the summer holidays, schools re-opened, but incidents of closures, partial closures and groups of students self-isolating continued.

Historical reasons for school closures such as strikes, snow days and riots have shown that loss of instructional time harms educational outcomes. This has been measured through standardised tests, repetition rates, qualifications and higher education participation. Likewise, recent research on the effect of COVID-19 school closures has highlighted a range of detrimental effects. This project will contribute to the evidence base through a focus on spatial inequalities, broad coverage of educational phases, consideration of outcomes in the short and medium term, and an innovative methodological approach.

The project team will work towards three objectives:

1. Investigating the incidence of school closure; focusing on the influence of school, pupil and geographical characteristics on the length of school closures. This will reveal the potential impact of socio-economic factors and whether pupils in areas already at risk of educational disadvantage are likely to have been placed at further risk through longer school closures.
2. Evaluating the effect of school closure on pupil attainment; looking at the results of national tests or teacher assessments for primary and secondary pupils between 2020 and 2022 (as available).
3. Evaluating the effect of school closure on non-attainment outcomes such as time use, strengths and difficulties, family relationships, wellbeing and future aspirations; based on data collected from Understanding Society.

The descriptive work associated with the first objective will involve regression analysis, visualisation in maps, and other spatial analysis to look for geographical trends and clusters. Analysis for the second and third objectives will seek to estimate causal effects of school closure via an instrumental variable regression strategy, based upon Local Authority announcements on school closure and reopening. In addition, the team will employ a differences-in differences approach to tackle the second objective. This will involve comparing the pre- and post- pandemic trajectories of pupil outcomes in schools that experienced longer closure or higher pupil absence with those that were closed for less time or experienced lower pupil absence.

The research will be disseminated through multiple outputs, focusing on the different intended outcomes of the project. They will be produced for a variety of audiences, ensuring the research is accessible for policy makers, practitioners and academics. Findings will be presented at events throughout the lifetime of the project, with the aim of engaging with key stakeholders and practitioners.