Progression from GCSEs not working for many young people

By Nuffield Foundation

A new report has highlighted the barriers faced by many of the 40% of young people in England who miss the benchmark of grade 4 in GCSE English and Maths. It calls for system reforms which go beyond those in the Government’s recent ‘Skills for Jobs’ white paper.

The study by researchers at the University of Manchester and the University of Aberdeen, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, is the first to focus on the diverse nature of this GCSE cohort of ‘lower attainers’ and the routes they follow after their GCSEs.

The study’s findings show that many of the young people in this cohort have substantial achievements outside their English and Maths grades – however, the intense focus on those two subjects means they see themselves as failures, and lack confidence in making decisions about their futures. It can also result in them being denied access to many opportunities, including apprenticeships.

Their post-16 transitions tend to be more complex and difficult than their higher achieving peers, with more time and support needed to help them realise their potential. Although many do progress between age 16 and 19, a quarter do not achieve a Level 2 qualification and three-fifths do not achieve a Level 3 qualification during this time.

The research analysed data on the five cohorts of young people who completed GCSEs between 2013 and 2017. A particular focus was placed on the 2015 cohort, whom the researchers could follow from 16 to 19 years old.  The team also conducted local case studies involving interviews and focus groups with 47 ‘low attaining’ young people, and detailed analysis of post-16 opportunities and entry requirements.

Barriers to progression for ‘lower attainers’

  • Insufficient career information, guidance and support in the ‘pressure cooker’ of Year 11, when the emphasis is on finding a post-16 course or apprenticeship.
  • Grade 4 or above in both English and Maths being used as entry requirements for courses and apprenticeships, even when it is not clear why they are specifically necessary.
  • A lack of apprenticeship and traineeship vacancies, and these being hard to get – young people eligible for Free School Meals are less likely to go into apprenticeships.
  • Variations across the country (even within the same local authority areas) in post-16 course offers and entry requirements, meaning young people with similar attainments have different levels of options available to them depending on their location.
  • Significant minorities of ‘lower attainers’ starting their post-16 phase at the same or lower levels of learning than they have already achieved. 

The authors argue that system reforms need to go well beyond those proposed in the recent ‘Skills for Jobs’ white paper, and that central government needs to enable and fund much stronger local coordination. They say England needs to move towards a three-year integrated upper secondary phase (incorporating academic and vocational courses and apprenticeships) with stronger transition programmes, and more funded support for young people with the greatest needs. They also call for changes to be made to curriculum and accountability arrangements in Key Stage 4, to reduce the excessive focus on English and Maths GCSE and build progression pathways for all young people.

“These findings really challenge the assumption that it is just a lack of good grades in English and maths which holds back ‘lower attainers’, rather than a lack of co-ordinated and accessible opportunities,” said Professor Ruth Lupton, who led the research. “We need a major policy shift towards enabling all young people to develop and progress, building on their existing achievements.”

Cheryl Lloyd, Education Programme Head at the Nuffield Foundation said:

“A substantial number of young people are missing the benchmark grade in GCSE English and Maths, but there are stark differences within this group, both in their achievements at 16 and their trajectories to age 19. The barriers these young people experience when trying to access suitable courses, including the variation of provision across England, underline the importance of taking a holistic view of post-16 provision. To truly support young people’s progression to further study and the labour market, policies need to work across local, regional and national levels and consider other phases of education.”

Related project


Explore our projects

A simple wall sign outside the British Treasury building at 1 Horse Guards Road, just off Whitehall, London.
New

Welfare | 2026 - 2030

IFS Green Budget 2026 – 2029

View project
A portrait of a teenager wearing casual clothing on an overcast summer day in Whitley Bay, Northeastern England. They are standing and looking concerned as they use their smartphone.

Welfare | 2026 - 2028

The digital lives of care-experienced children

View project
Over-the-shoulder shot of a female secondary school teacher having a one-to-one conversation with a male teenage student. They are both sitting down and she is maintaining eye contact as she is talking. The teacher is smiling and sharing a positive interaction with the student.
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

The impacts of Relational and Restorative Practice in school

View project
Young girl smiling and reading book on green sofa
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

Love to Read Phase 2: A large-scale evaluation

View project

Education | 2026 - 2027

The effects of permanent school closures on pupils’ outcomes

View project
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

The long-term impact of student loans in further education

View project
Young well dressed businesswoman working on a computer at the office

Welfare | 2026 - 2029

Pain-at-Work Toolkit for employees with chronic pain (definitive trial) 

View project
Young woman using a digital printing machine on an apprenticeship

Education | 2026 - 2027

Apprenticeship Pathways

View project

Welfare | 2026 - 2028

Examining gender pension gaps: trajectories over time in the UK

View project
Early years professionals playing with children
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

Noise in early years settings for children from under-privileged backgrounds

View project
Female Student Standing Outside College Building

Education | 2026 - 2027

How do students with SEND fare in the transition to post-16 education?

View project
Parents with baby
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

Your Baby and You: Developing the home learning environment for babies

View project
A simple wall sign outside the British Treasury building at 1 Horse Guards Road, just off Whitehall, London.
New

Welfare | 2026 - 2030

IFS Green Budget 2026 – 2029

View project
A portrait of a teenager wearing casual clothing on an overcast summer day in Whitley Bay, Northeastern England. They are standing and looking concerned as they use their smartphone.

Welfare | 2026 - 2028

The digital lives of care-experienced children

View project
Young well dressed businesswoman working on a computer at the office

Welfare | 2026 - 2029

Pain-at-Work Toolkit for employees with chronic pain (definitive trial) 

View project

Education | 2026 - 2027

The effects of permanent school closures on pupils’ outcomes

View project
Female Student Standing Outside College Building

Education | 2026 - 2027

How do students with SEND fare in the transition to post-16 education?

View project
Young woman using a digital printing machine on an apprenticeship

Education | 2026 - 2027

Apprenticeship Pathways

View project
Young girl smiling and reading book on green sofa
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

Love to Read Phase 2: A large-scale evaluation

View project
Pioneering study reveals teaching techniques which boost exam performance: a teacher sits on a desk among her secondary school pupils, all looking at the board
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2027

A study of multi-grade teaching in English primary schools

View project
Over-the-shoulder shot of a female secondary school teacher having a one-to-one conversation with a male teenage student. They are both sitting down and she is maintaining eye contact as she is talking. The teacher is smiling and sharing a positive interaction with the student.
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

The impacts of Relational and Restorative Practice in school

View project
Parents with baby
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

Your Baby and You: Developing the home learning environment for babies

View project
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

The long-term impact of student loans in further education

View project

Welfare | 2025 - 2026

2026 Scottish Parliament and Senedd election analysis

View project
Young girl smiling and reading book on green sofa
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

Love to Read Phase 2: A large-scale evaluation

View project
Pioneering study reveals teaching techniques which boost exam performance: a teacher sits on a desk among her secondary school pupils, all looking at the board
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2027

A study of multi-grade teaching in English primary schools

View project
Over-the-shoulder shot of a female secondary school teacher having a one-to-one conversation with a male teenage student. They are both sitting down and she is maintaining eye contact as she is talking. The teacher is smiling and sharing a positive interaction with the student.
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

The impacts of Relational and Restorative Practice in school

View project
Parents with baby
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

Your Baby and You: Developing the home learning environment for babies

View project
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

The long-term impact of student loans in further education

View project
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2027

Trialling an assessment protocol for LLM-powered careers advice 

View project
Teaching assistant plays with little boy at nursery
In progress

Education | 2025 - 2026

Room to Grow: School-based Nursery Places and the Disadvantage Gap

View project
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

School climate and pupil belonging, attendance and achievement

View project
Early years professionals playing with children
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2028

Noise in early years settings for children from under-privileged backgrounds

View project
In progress

Education | 2025 - 2026

Childminder-led structured language enrichment in the Early Years

View project
A horizontal image of two children outdoors using a big mental pan to make mud pies, while a young woman supervises. The children are both wrapped up warm in coats and are contently playing
In progress

Education | 2025 - 2028

Policy change and inequalities in early childhood education and care

View project
A cheerful young man wearing a green apron and a grey hoodie. He is placing fresh baked goods outside a cafe, holding a bowl filled with freshly baked bread. The cafe is in the background.
In progress

Education | 2026 - 2027

Student employment and subsequent education and labour market outcomes 

View project
New

Racial Diversity UK | Welfare | 2025 - 2028

Decline to renewal: Race, deindustrialisation and working lives

View project
New

Racial Diversity UK | Welfare | 2025 - 2028

Better mixing: Supporting Scotland’s diverse future

View project
Two mothers cuddle their daughter on the sofa with their dog: Welfare access, assets and debts of LGBT+ people in the UK
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2027

Understanding fertility intentions in 21st century Britain

View project
New

Education | 2025 - 2025

Exploring Multi Academy Trust approaches to Artificial Intelligence

View project
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2027

Musculoskeletal conditions, employment retention and job quality

View project
row of houses
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2028

Musculoskeletal conditions in underserved communities

View project
A shot of a grandfather sitting in a tractor with his young granddaughter, he is at his farm in North East, England. The grandfather and the girl's mother are teaching her about the farm.
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2028

Arthritis and farmers in England: Impacts, adaptations and prevention

View project
traditional detached house within residential estate in England UK, several houses in view have solar panels on the roof.
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2026

Distributional impacts of net zero on electricity consumers

View project
Portrait of a senior woman at home checking a letter in the mail
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2026

How can low earners afford a commensurate retirement income?

View project
Female electrician arrives at job. She is wearing an orange hi-vis jacket and behind her is a van.
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2026

Characterising the job ladder in England

View project
Close up of a Young woman going over her retirement savings at home while using her laptop
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2026

Tackling the information gap in retirement saving decisions

View project
New

Welfare | 2025 - 2027

All women are born (un)equal: menopause, HRT and women’s well-being

View project
Pre-school students sitting in an art classroom being taught by a teacher. The classroom is colourful and the children are sat at a big table.
Reported

Education | 2024 - 2026

A comparative analysis of EY workforce policy in the four UK nations

View project
Sixth form student smiling in a classroom while a teacher helps a classmate in the row behind him
Reported

Education | 2023 - 2025

The Extended Project Qualification: An Opportunity for All?

View project
Two little boys and a little girl, all wearing primary school uniform, work together to solve a puzzle in their classroom.
Reported

Education | 2023 - 2025

What has ‘Free School Meals’ measured and what are the implications?

View project
Elderly man drinking tea at home with professional carer
Reported

Welfare | 2023 - 2024

Evidencing the outsourcing of social care provision in England

View project
Male and female apprentices looking at car engine
Reported

Education | 2022 - 2025

Work or study? Gender and the transition from school to work

View project
Teenage sixth form students taking notes in a lesson
Reported

Education | 2022 - 2025

Comparing inequality and outcomes across post-16 education in the UK

View project
Little girl watches TV on her own at home
Reported

Education | 2023 - 2025

Do same language subtitles help children learn to read?

View project
Reception class children using a parachute in a PE lesson
Reported

Education | 2022 - 2023

A movement and story-telling intervention for reception children

View project
Reported

Education | Welfare | 2022 - 2024

Understanding school attendance, education and labour market outcomes

View project
A classroom of children with their hands up to answer a question, with two teachers at the front of the classroom
Reported

Education | 2022 - 2024

Inspecting the inspectorate: new insights into Ofsted inspections

View project
Reported

Education | 2022 - 2025

The medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pupils with SEND

View project
Grandparents having fun outdoors with their granddaughter, who is eating an apple and laughing: Understanding family and community vulnerabilities in transition to net zero
Reported

Welfare | 2021 - 2023

Understanding family and community vulnerabilities in transition to net zero

View project
Search projects

We improve people’s lives by funding research that informs social policy, primarily in Education, Welfare and Justice. We also fund student programmes that give young people skills and confidence in science and research.

We offer our grant-holders the freedom to frame questions and enable new thinking. Our research must stand up to rigorous academic scrutiny, but we understand that to be successful in effecting change, it also needs to be relevant to people’s experience.

Profile