The Budget is a pivotal moment in the political calendar. Decisions about tax, spending and welfare can affect living standards, public services and economic performance for years to come, and define the reputations of prime ministers and chancellors alike.
Newly resident in Downing Street and the Treasury, Andy Burnham and John Healey inherit a daunting set of challenges but will be seeking to re-examine the role of government in addressing the UK’s longstanding problems. As they prepare their first budget, what sources of independent evidence can help inform them?
The role of high-quality research
For nearly forty years the IFS Green Budget has provided forensic scrutiny of the economy, public finances, and public spending. It has become one of the most respected sources of information ahead of the budget, helping policymakers, commentators and the wider public understand both the opportunities and constraints facing the government of the day.
As in previous years, the 2026 Green Budget analyses selected issues that illustrate some of the dilemmas confronting the Chancellor. Its value lasts well beyond Budget Day, with chapters exploring:
- the impact of migration and forecasting assumptions about migration on the public finances
- options for reforming Personal Independence Payments
- factors determining UK electricity prices
- how tax sharing might operate within a more devolved system of governance
The Green Budget is just one example of research funded by the Nuffield Foundation with relevance to the upcoming budget.
Today also sees the release of the 2026 edition of Institute for Government’s Performance Tracker which examines the funding and performance of nine key public services: general practice, hospitals, adult social care, children’s social care, schools, police, criminal courts, prisons, and the probation service.
And next week, Professor Ruth Patrick will publish a policy brief exploring how disruption in the Gulf is affecting households with children across the UK. Funded through the Foundation’s US–Iran Conflict Rapid Response Fund, the project provides timely evidence to inform the Chancellor’s decisions about how best to help households struggling with their own budgets.
Difficult trade-offs
The strain on public services remains intense, demands on spending continue to grow, and ministers are looking for ways to boost growth whilst continuing to meet the fiscal rules, as measured by the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR). The latter is important, because the UK already faces growing costs from servicing its debts, and unfunded spending commitments would worsen that situation.
Budgets signal the government’s approach to building a society that is prosperous and fair, where people are secure and able to fulfil their potential. The decisions made will raise fundamental questions about economic opportunity, living standards, inclusion, the sustainability of public services, and the effectiveness of the institutions on which we all rely.
There are few easy wins. Policymakers must navigate trade-offs between competing demands on scarce resources, often with major implications for households, businesses, and public sector spending. Nevertheless, it is important that individual decisions are underpinned by a clear and transparent strategy for the public finances and public spending and not solely guided by what is affordable under the fiscal rules or overly determined by the precise forecasting assumptions of the OBR.
Why independent evidence matters
At a time when political discourse is increasingly polarised, research can bring fresh insight and clarity to debates about the economic and fiscal choices facing the country. As governments contend with these challenges, the need for rigorous scrutiny and informed discussion only grows. The Green Budget and the wider body of evidence highlighted here play a vital role in supporting both.
