England’s education system is increasingly stretched, with debates about funding and long-term sustainability becoming ever more widespread.
New evidence is helping to clarify where the challenges lie and what they might mean for the years ahead. The latest Annual report on education spending in England from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), funded by the Foundation, sets out the multiple headwinds buffeting education spending, and the tough decisions policymakers face as they seek to deliver the government’s ambitions for opportunity and social mobility against a backdrop of tight finances and rising costs.
SEND: A growing pressure point
One of the most significant pressures highlighted in the report is the rapid rise in costs to support children with special educational needs (SEND).
While public spending on education remains close to historic lows as a share of national income, stress on the system is anything but static, with the growing demands of SEND provision threatening to overwhelm budgets and stifle spending elsewhere.
SEND now represents the most acute financial pressure, with expenditure nearly doubling over the past decade due to rising numbers of pupils with Education, Health and Care Plans and shortages of places in special schools. As a result, the Office for Budget Responsibility warns of a £6 billion funding black hole by 2028–29.
The forthcoming White Paper on schools and SEND will be pivotal in determining whether reforms can curb the growth in demand, while at the same time improving provision for the most vulnerable learners.
Demographic shifts causing uneven pressures
Changing demographics are also creating issues. Falling pupil numbers in primary schools contrast sharply with continued growth in post-16 and higher education. This imbalance creates a dilemma: should savings be made where numbers are declining, or should resources be reinvested to improve quality and reduce class sizes? Meanwhile, the expansion of early-years entitlements marks one of the most significant policy shifts in decades, transforming childcare provision to support working parents, but raising questions about sustainability and equity.
Persistent challenges for higher and further education
Higher and further education face their own predicaments. While indexation of tuition fees and the reintroduction of maintenance grants offer some relief, the long-term balance between public and private contributions remains contested. Further education and skills – historically underfunded yet increasingly important in helping to deliver the government’s Skills Agenda – must adapt to these new policy ambitions and rising demand.
Why this matters
The new IFS research goes beyond simply tracking education spending; it underscores the difficult choices policymakers need to take when balancing limited resources against competing priorities.
For those involved in policy or holding decision-makers to account, the evidence in these annual reports is indispensable – shaping public debate, informing scrutiny, and guiding decisions at critical moments.
The challenges it presents are substantial, but so is the opportunity to ensure investment in education strengthens the system for every learner, while prioritising the needs of the most vulnerable children and young people.
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